Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
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You're in the SB, so it's .75 BBs pre-flop;
.75*.88 = .66
1.16 - .08 - .66 = .42 * 100 instances = 42 BBs.
Still, you would need to be able to win a considerable amount of those pots unimproved in order for this to be a +EV play long-term.
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what am I missing?
did you just prove, given your assumptions on post-flop action, that playing for set value ALONE wins 42BBs over 100 trials?
then you seem to contradict yourself and say you need to also win unimproved to make this profitable.
which is it? or where am i missing your point?
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