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  #19  
Old 11-15-2005, 01:10 PM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 87
Default Re: welcome to the rock.

If you think he is capable of raising AK, then I would at least coldcall, if not raise. I don't think I would fold this hand.

1) You're barely below 50-50 to have the best hand against him (AK = 16, AA/KK/QQ = 18). If you don't think he's raising QQ, then you're a little above 50-50. Either way, you're making money off the donk in the middle by playing this hand (because I doubt he's folding preflop).
2) You have position on Rocky and there is a very small range of hands which you expect him to have. This means that you have the playing advantage and make fewer postflop errors.
3) Coldcalling might be better than 3-betting if you think the blinds are very likely to come along. They will help pad the pot when you are against a bigger pair. They will also help give you more action if you flop a set.
4) The advantage to 3-betting (besides getting more money in the pot) is to drive out the other players who might hold overcards to your pair. In this case, you are already getting out if any ace or king falls, which really leaves one mystery overcard (Q) where you're not quite sure what to do. This means that you don't really care so as much about driving out the overcards because most of the time it won't affect your decision.
5) If you 3-bet and Rocky caps, you can allow yourself to lean more towards believing he doesn't have AK.

So weighing it all together, I would lean a little bit closer to cold-calling if I think Rocky is... rockier. If he might be a little less so, then I wouldn't mind 3-betting him.
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