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Old 11-15-2005, 10:27 AM
wheeler wheeler is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 18
Default Re: Set on four flush problem

If MP3 has AcAx and button has Qc with no pair 50% of the time, Qc with a pair 40% of the time and 2 pair 10% of the time (the percentages here don't really matter all that much --- it's not close), you have 22% pot equity, so calling 4 bets has an immediate positive EV of slightly over 1 BB. Of course your EV is actually higher because of the river.

Also since you know for a FACT that it's getting capped, you may as well put the 3rd bet in on the turn yourself, to give you deception on the river when you hit. Not knowing the players as well as you, I would just call though.
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