[tiltaholic]

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"You raise:
Both fold, BB calls = +1 BB (happens 80% of the time)
One calls, BB calls = +3 BB (happens 20% of the time)
3(.2) + 1 (.8) = 1.24 BB from raising "

this i think is reasonable. but the "call" situation should be more like this:

You call:

Both call = +2 BB (happens 30%)
One calls = +1 BB (happens 60%)
Neither call = 0 BB (happens 10%)

.3*2+.6*1= 1.2 bb

whatever i think it's close.
when it's close, i like to raise.

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How can you totally leave out the "You call, button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds?"

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i think that if they like their hand enough to raise, they usually like their hand enough to 3-bet your raise and for certain will call 2-cold.

i don't think it's absolutely correct to leave it out completely. but i think it's more correct to leave it out completely than to only include it in the case of "calling".

in any case, the possible outcomes are not as important as having a good sense of the probabilities for the ones that are included.

and for the record i don't have a strong opinion on whether its better to raise or call. if i had a slight read that someone behind me liked to bluff on scary boards i'd probably decide to call and hope to lay down the smack if they bluff raised. if i was playing in a suspicious game i'd probably raise because it LOOKS more like a bluff than anything else and i'd probably get more action that way.