[tiltaholic]

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That means both players have to fold when they would have both called for your raise to be a mistake.

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Uh, no. It all depends on what percentage of the time button will cold call, and BB will call, or both fold, or you call and button raises and you can 3 bet, etc.

Here's a little math for the most likely scenarios:

You raise:

Both fold, BB calls = +1 BB (happens 80% of the time)
One calls, BB calls = +3 BB (happens 20% of the time)

3(.2) + 1 (.8) = 1.24 BB from raising

You call:

Both call = +2 BB (happens 10%)
One calls = +1 BB (happens 60%)
Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)
Neither call = 0 BB (happens 10%)

2(.1) + 1(.6) + 4(.2) + 0(.1) = 1.6 BB when you call

Of course, the percentage are dependent, but it's a little more complicated than you make it. Adjust the percentages to your opinion of your opponents, but this is my approximation, so calling is the best, with raising a close second.

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no offense dude. but you seem to have skewed the numbers way in favor of calling.

Surely this situation
"Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)"
could have happened if we raised the river...

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Yes, I agree, it could happen, but how often does button 3-bet? I say never. Like I said, the percentages are relative depending on the opponents, I was just pointing out that it was more complicated than others were making it out to be.

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fine point taken.
but if you're going to attempt to apply the supposed legitimacy of math to the topic, try to formulate a feasible comparison.

you can't have tons of action behind you in one case and not the other becuase that dramatically affects the final ev in the model.

"You raise:
Both fold, BB calls = +1 BB (happens 80% of the time)
One calls, BB calls = +3 BB (happens 20% of the time)
3(.2) + 1 (.8) = 1.24 BB from raising "

this i think is reasonable. but the "call" situation should be more like this:

You call:

Both call = +2 BB (happens 30%)
One calls = +1 BB (happens 60%)
Neither call = 0 BB (happens 10%)

.3*2+.6*1= 1.2 bb

whatever i think it's close.
when it's close, i like to raise.