Re: A8s.....river play?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fact that someone may have a 5 is why you call. They will raise, allowing you to 3-bet them and BB.
[/ QUOTE ]
Or they were calling down with some crap overcards like KT, and will fold regardless, and you gain nothing.
[/ QUOTE ]
That's the thing. If they have crap and fold behind, you've missed 1 BB. Obviously we don't want to go around dropping BBs for no reason, but this hand presents a pretty good risk-reward ratio IMO.
With two guys left in the hand, it's reasonably likely that at least one was on a draw (either the straight or a smaller flush). If one of the villains made a smaller flush you and he are capping no matter what you do, but you stand a much better chance of milking BB by call-reraising instead of making BB call two cold. Likewise, if CO (say) has the straight, you'll often get an extra bet out of both BB and CO by getting fancy relative to the straightforward raise.
This particular board has a lot of completed draws, so I think the odds favor the fancy play. Take away the 4-straight board and I'd be more inclined to raise and take my extra bet from BB.
[/ QUOTE ]
Exactly. It's more complicated than he has this or that. You have to think mathematically long-term. See my other post for formula. You have to think, "How often will this happen?" That's what determines the best play here. And like he said, the board here affects the percentages so that calling is best.
|