[Shillx]

These are the types of posts that I enjoy since they are pure theory. First off, let me say that your turn and river play is bad. In order to make a raise on the turn, one or more of the following must be true...

1) The raise is for value -- While this might or might not be the case here, if we are raising the turn for value we need to bet the river for value as well.

2) The raise is to get a hand to fold that shouldn't fold if they know what we have -- This isn't the case here either. The raise has to be able to get a better hand to fold (like QJ) or it has to make hands like QT (that have tons of outs) go away. Note that it doesn't have to work anywhere near 100% of the time to make it correct. In this case, no better hand will ever fold and it is very doubtful that he holds a hand worthy of folding that has tons of outs against us. This raise tends to work better in big pots where wrong folds can be very costly.

So if you raise the turn with both Jx and Ax [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] it will cause havok for your opponent. If he has something like a pair of 8's, it puts him in a very tough spot since you are playing as game theory would suggest. If he folds, he is sometimes tossing in the best hand. If he calls, he is oftentimes paying you off. The key to this play is that you have to bet the river when you have Jx (and then sometimes bet the river when you have nothing). By checking the river, you make it much easier for him since he is essentially risking one more BB to win 7.75 BB. By betting the river you charge him 2 to win 8.75 when you have the best hand, and you oftentimes don't have to put in that last best when you bust since you are last to act. As you played it, it becomes far more correct for him to call the turn raise since you will give him a free showdown.

Brad

Edit - This post doesn't read well. I hope it makes sense. Too tired to post.