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  #17  
Old 11-14-2005, 03:27 AM
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Default Re: (109) more AQ bubble fun with raptor

So Hero has to lose to both villains to bust out here. I think he's probably between 60-40 and 50-50 vs each individually (big stack can call any two profitbaly $EV-wise here if he assumes villain will fold). So Hero will lose here something like 16-25% of the time.

Pre-post, Hero has about 27% equity, so when he loses here he's burning 4.3-6.8% equity in the prize pool on that side of the ledger by calling. If we assume he always beats them both the rest of the time, his total equity increases to 38.1% a change of +11.1%. This happens 75-84% of the time under our assumption, so the net gain on this side of the ledger is 8.3-9.3%.

That looks like a call, but we're ignoring the significant cases where shorty triples up and hero beats big stack, as well as the cases where both hero and shorty go out. I'm really not sure how to assign percentages to those. I'd guess Hero actually beats them both closer to 40% of the time for a an EV gain of 4.4% which is no better than break-even with the times he loses to both, and since in both cases where the result is intermediate Hero is giving up equity, I think this is probably a fold. I'd love to see a more definitive math answer from someone with more experience, though.

In the heat of it, I'm folding this without much thought. I'd probably only call with a PP, preferably a big one, though I might go down to say JJ/TT/99.
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