View Single Post
  #11  
Old 11-14-2005, 02:45 AM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: (109) more AQ bubble fun with raptor

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see why people are saying fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're missing hte point. you're fairly likely to lose, getting nothing, whereas folding makes you fairly likely to not lose, and get something.

c

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree that we are fairly likely to lose in this point. If we assume that everyone involved is a competant player, what are each villian's ranges?
I think shortie is pushing top 50% (hes going to be practically all in on the next hand, so if he has a better than average hand should put his chips in now, he won't push with less than this because he knows he has 0 fold equity)
Big Stack knows that the shortie has to push top 50%, and with the blinds in there as likely dead money, I think he will probably push around top 30%.
I'm not an an expert at ITM, and have don't know how to calculate an accurate win % vs these ranges, but my instict tells me this a call, but its very close. I would be interested in seeing what ICM says using those ranges, if a knowledgable person wants to test it out.
Reply With Quote