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Old 11-14-2005, 02:15 AM
BluffTHIS! BluffTHIS! is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 375
Default Re: Keeping the Initiative (Stars 100 hand)

I'm going to make 1 additional comment on these types of hands. Look at the situations that can arise when you play them:

1) You see the flop miss and fold, which will happen most of the time. Same as when there is a 2nd very large raise and you have to fold. But all these misses add up, and are the same as a limit leak of playing too many hands even if you don't go too far with them.

2) In a small pot without any big draws you bet the pot and win a small pot.

3) A big pot gets played when you flop top set and the draw gets there on the turn, and you have to fold as a money dog. More money lost. (Plus beware the temptation offered by an expert player who now bets only slightly above 1/2 the pot offering you still insufficient odds to call but not as bad as if he had bet the full pot.)

4) A big pot gets played on a KQx board and you lose to top set, or rarely to quads to a player who had a lower set and a draw on the flop. More money lost if you can't read really well and the stack sizes allow you to get away from the hand.

5) A big pot gets played and you bust middle set or a player who is overaggressive with a wrap and wants to get allin on the flop as a dog and you win. The best situation of course.

6) A big pot gets played and you get allin on the turn and the draw gets there on the river and busts you. Money lost. Happens a mathematically determined number of times.


But the kicker to all this, is that by playing better sidecards, you are the one who might pick up a quality draw and be able to win a big pot and bust someone else with a draw that gets there. Although rare, you sometimes will flop a straight and flush draw and make an overset on someone and win a big pot that way as well.

So you have to be able to win enough with a junky QQ/KK hand to make up for all the times you don't and lose. And you have to be able to do it out of position where you suffer the worst possibility of being bluffed by a player behind you with a weak draw who bluffs the river when a different draw gets there. And you never have a freeroll situation where you both make the straight together and you bust him when you fill the river after getting allin on the turn, where he would have folded to a board pair if mony was left to bet.

So my final advice is to consider all these things and balance not just how much you win with those marginal hands but also how much you lose. I predict you will find such hands are marginal winners at best and add significantly to your variance.
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