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I've heard from many people over the last few years that this is just a short term explosion caused by Moneymaker, and to a lesser extent, Raymer being unknowns and winning the world championship.

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Respectfully, I think it was well underway before this. Consider these other factors:

1. Legalization of forms of stud poker in California in the late 1980's. Before that most California cardrooms were little more than draw poker clubs. When California poker started to expand, Vegas had to match and exceed.

2. Once poker began expanding in LV and CA, then AC was mandated to keep up with the Jones'. I was covering AC for Blackjack Forum magazine at the time poker was legalized there in the early 90's. The east coast went from having only underground and quasi-legal clubs (Maryland firehouses) to having several hundred legal tables within the space of about 6 months.

3. Similarly, around this time the Indian casinos were starting to take off, and of course, they had to keep up with the Smith's and the Jones'. Hence Foxwoods and the rest.

4. Then, after all this was taking place, and all the other things like WSOP-TV, the internet boom came along. But even with the internet boom, internet poker didn't happen right away because the technology was not mature enough (server horsepower, multi-casting, broadband to the home, etc.). It was only after these technologies matured that internet poker became a possibility.

5. Now at this point, circa late 90's, your points kick in. This is not to say that your points aren't valid. They certainly are. But there were many more precursors.

Further, I think the boom will sustain so long as there is expendable cash available in the US and elsewhere. By and large people don't spend the rent and food money on online poker. They spend extra cash that they don't miss if they lose. As long as this scenario remains, the boom will at worst level off.

IMHO, I don't see a rapid fall-off within the next 5-10 years unless something drastic happens (e.g., laws, taxes, etc.)