Re: Quick thoughts, more later
i don't consider it to be very likely that someone has slowplayed on the turn (it would have been a terrible mistake).
sure, you are probably beat, but your read doesn't have a reliability of more than 90% (not even close).
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ok, you are reading hands...
and your read tells you, that the two caller have aces each
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Yep. I think most will agree with this. By "agree" I mean if person X is to read hands, they'll guess HJ and Button have aces as their first guess.
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sure, its very possible that both caller have aces, but it isn't like almost 100% sure.
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and the bettor has a non ace containing hand
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This follows from above, and the fact that there are only 4 in the deck.
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yes, i am aware of the fact that usualy only 4 aces are in the deck.
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that he had slowplayed on the turn in a monster pot with a 2 flush on the board in a gigantic multiway pot
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Yes, or he's bluffing.
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with a probability well over 90%? thats hilarious.
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Pretty much. Oh, sure, you are missing lots of points, like, even if HJ doesn't have an ace, I'm still a big dog to win this because UTG still very possibly (in fact, LIKELY, has me beat...)
Josh
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yeah, he likely has you beat if hijack has an ace and he very possibly has you if hijack doesn't have one. the problem is that you have to be right much more than 90% of the time. i realy don't see why you think you are.
even if you are beat with a probability of 95% if hijack and button have an ace each and they have aces with a chance of 80% and you are beat with 75% if they both have aces it is a call!
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