Re: Quick thoughts, more later
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ok, you are reading hands...
and your read tells you, that the two caller have aces each
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Yep. I think most will agree with this. By "agree" I mean if person X is to read hands, they'll guess HJ and Button have aces as their first guess.
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and the bettor has a non ace containing hand
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This follows from above, and the fact that there are only 4 in the deck.
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that he had slowplayed on the turn in a monster pot with a 2 flush on the board in a gigantic multiway pot
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Yes, or he's bluffing.
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with a probability well over 90%? thats hilarious.
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Pretty much. Oh, sure, you are missing lots of points, like, even if HJ doesn't have an ace, I'm still a big dog to win this because UTG still very possibly (in fact, LIKELY, has me beat...)
Look, if I said "the sun rose at 7:31 a.m., and the temperature at this time of day was 61 degrees in a specific city", well, that would be a pretty ridiculous parlay (of course).
However, if all indications are that it's the time of year when the sun rises at 7:31, and the normal temp at 7:31 is 61 degrees for this same time of year, well...suddenly it's not so ridiculous. That's what's happening here. Everything is strongly correlated. Once one thing happens (both opponents raise preflop, call the flop, check the turn, and call the river), everything else becomes VERY likely.
Josh
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