Re: How can I possibly be good here?
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Oh, and no way do you check this river. Value bet relentlessly.
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The math in spots like this says a lot. If you pay off, you have to win twice to equal the 2 bets lost to one raise. Taking it a step further, you have to win 1 bet 7 times out of 10 if you pay off 3 times just to show a 1 bet profit. Win 7, lose 6.
Take into account the many times your bet isn't called and you see how just betting doesn't guarantee a profit if you pay off as little as 1/3 of the time.
I think with a hand you want to show down, you have to check more often to induce a bluff bet or save bets when it's equally likely that you'd either be raised by a better one or called by a worse one.
Which is why relentlessly betting thin with the marginal hands that are easily released are usually the ones you'll make the most money from. Then it's only a 51% prop on the river and you'll collect from calling station's by the truck load.
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