[MCS]

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I don't have much to add to this thread other than quoting whoever it was who said something along the lines of 'you don't make money in limit hold'em by making big laydowns on the river in huge pots.'

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I am positive that Josh knows and considered this advice. As he has been repeatedly pointing out, simply restating "big pot ==> call" is not helpful.

Of course if Josh thinks he wins 10% of the time, he should call. However, if he's 5% to win, he should fold. So precision matters here.

Also, if you think it is a close decision, then folding is okay. There is a huge flaw in the idea that "You need to win 1 in 14 times, and I think you will win about that much, but call-and-it's-not-close because losing a big pot is catastrophic and losing a bet isn't." That's not how EV works.

If Josh is exactly 5% to win, he should not call. And that's true even if this is one of those times when he actually would have been good.