Re: 99 HU vs a TAG - spew?
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You're risking between 1BB to 2BB to win ~4.5BB-5BB depending on whether he calls the flop CR and if you always fire the turn. I'd put him on a pocket pair that could potentially fold about half of the time, but unless he's weak tight he's calling down too often. Bad TAGs call you down because they have a premium starting hand, good TAGs call you down because they know you're FOS, assuming they know you're good, how often do you use this line with a monster or a WA/WB hand?
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If I had a monster such as TT in this case, I think I would bet-call the flop and C/R the turn as my usual line. With AJ-AQ I would probably use the flop C/R and call down any further aggression. With AK I do the same, but probably throw in one more raise or C/R on the turn. A WA/WB hand such as KK, I would probably play it C/C, C/C, Bet.
I knew the chance of me being ahead on the flop were virtually zero. Basically, I was trying to play this hand to represent a big A, and hope that he would fold JJ-KK. I do agree with you that this won't happen near enough to be profitable. I thought as much when reviewing the hand myself, but just wanted to check other opinions.
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