[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
It's not playing scared.

Assuming he checkraises me with 88, 77, KQ, and AQ I have a weighted average of 10 outs and 21% equity. I lose 1.16BB's everytime he checkraises me, equity wise. He also reduces my effective odds to 3.75-1 when he pulls off a checkraise, and I'm a 4.6-1 dog to his check-ranging range. So by betting this turn I manage to turn the nut flush draw with overcards into a losing play.

Assuming he calls with a worse hand (which he won't do a whole lot of, let's assume worse aces) with 3 outs with 2% equity I gain 0.96 BB's.

When he calls me with a pair, I lose 0.348 BB's.

I'll let you come up with some reasonable figures for how often Villian has to hold a worse hand and call to outweigh when he has a better hand. Not to mention any money gained from bluffs induced by my turn check from hands he wouldn't have called the turn with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I change my answer. I wasn't thinking enough earlier, and looking back at it, there is not a whole lot that he calls your turn bet with that you are beating. Considering the A,K, and Q of spades are already out there, there is almost no way he has a flush draw (since he raised preflop UTG). Similarly, he cannot have a straight draw. This leaves hands that MIGHT call the turn that we beat with AJ, AT, A9, but these are not so likely (considering the fact that he wouldn't call so much with these hands unless he has the 9,T,Js, and since you already have an ace, there are many less combos out there).

So, I do like checking the turn, and inducing a bluff on the river. I still don't like your river bet though.