[thesharpie]

Tough one. The pot will be like 15BB if you raise the turn and CO 3 bets assuming the other guys gets out, so you'd be missing out on like .7BB by folding. Obviously if he sometimes get you to laydown the best hand it's even worse.

Also once he 3 bet if you decided to calldown I think you'd be getting more like over 10 to 1 than 8 to 1 effective, since you're only putting in ~1.3BB on the turn and river due to your equity, and assuming villain has 9 outs on average (a number I picked out my ass) when we're ahead villain will win the 16.7BB pot around 1/5 of the time giving us ~13.3 to 1.3.

Also if he only 3 bets us a small amount of the time, not enough to warrant calling down, we still lose quite a bit. If he does it 1 in 20 times we lose about .66BB, add that to the .7BB we miss out on by not drawing and we lose ~1.36BB. Even if he only 3 bets 1 out of 40 times we lose over 1BB when you add the ~.7BB equity we have.

Sorry if the above is totally wrong, or too inaccurate, it's the first time I've bothered thinking about these concepts and I suck at math so I won't bother getting too accurate.

Having said all that the pot is so large that just knocking out a 4 outer makes us over 1BB if we're ahead, and I'm guessing the cold caller usually has 6-8 outs unless he regularly cold calls the flop with utter crap.

I'd say the LRRer is almost never folding if we're ahead so we can't increase our chances by knocking him out, but we do gain a bet when he would've check/folded the river, or when we get too scared to value bet it after he checks.

After all that I think I raise the turn, we can often get the coldcaller to fold an 8 outer incorrectly and that's worth more than the equity we give up on by sometimes folding the best hand when we get 3 bet and also giving up the chance to sometimes spike a set. Also we often gain a bet (or 2 if the other guy coldcalls while behind) when we otherwise wouldn't have if we were too scared to bet the river or they check/folded the river.

Really it boils down to how often you think the LRRer will 3 bet with a worse hand, and also how often we're currently ahead since folding a 10 outer is only like folding a 5 outer if we're only ahead 50% of the time. No doubt we're ahead more than 50% of the time but you get what I'm saying. If your estimate of him 3 betting a worse hand starts getting close to what would make a calldown correct if he 3 bet then I just calldown since it can start getting expensive.