Re: Quick thoughts, more later
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Josh,
You have the CO and Button beat the majority of the time. UTG has played his hand so strangely, and so incorrectly, that you cannot be sure what he has. Giving a free card in this big pot(to what can easily be a flush draw or now KQ/QJ if your analysis is correct), would be a horrendus play on his part. So bad, that you cannot assume that other horrendus plays(like bluffing the river) are not in his arsenal. This is the reason you must call.
Jason
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I swear reading comprehension is at an all time low on this board.
I DO FACTOR in the naked bluff. I just think it's less than 10%.
The guy is 38/14. Of course he's a bad player. I'm the only winning player I know with stats remotely that close, and they are dropping a lot with less shorthanded play.
There's no doubt he's a bad player. Instead of stating the obvious, give me some reason why he may bluff more than 10% of the time into a field of 4 on the river.
Josh
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