[pfkaok]

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Yep, i've officially changed sides...

I'm definitely folding here, and i like it.

In an incredibly slow structure, in a tournament FILLED with idiots. Theres no way that this +800 chip (8% of our stack) move is worth the ginormous variance. And, i don't think it's +EV. My value doesn't quite double (as Mason's big ole post has been suggesting), i'd guess i'm worth between 60-80% more. So i'd need a 60%+ chance (in one shot) to double up for me to feel right doing it.

And the stats Matt quoted at the end, about how he countned that he double dup in 55% of his tournaments or somethign... that was online tournaments right? with fast structures/low chips? In a tournament like this it's gotta be more likely to double up. Maybe i'm just an arrogant prick though.

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no offense exit, but i think since you ran quite well in the EPT event you're overestimating a good players ability to double up without taking big risks.

when matros says almost nobody can double up before they bust 59% of the time, he's talking about these big field 10k buyins.

everyone rips on these theoretical examples b/c they're unrealistic, like to actualy see the other guys' cards. but the fact is, part of being an expert player is having the ability to process more info than others. so at time you can tell that you're 55% or so vs. their range to double up. if you're good enough to deduce that you're in a 55% spot like that, and knowingly pass it up, you simply won't do as well in MTTs as somebody witht the same ability who takes those chances.