[Josh W]

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If UTG bets the turn and a drawingdead opponent mucks, it's horrible. If he gives a free card, there's no guarantee that they call the river, but there's AT LEAST A CHANCE for post-turn profit to be made.

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This analysis is terrible. He raises his impossibly strong hand on the flop, then checks it on the turn?

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The analysis is terrible only if you dislike winning.

People who raise preflop don't like folding in huge pots on the flop. People never (or, more accurately, rarely) think of themselves as drawing dead on the flop. However, people with no pair and no draw often find themselves drawing dead on the turn. Hence, people like to call more on the flop than on the turn. I'm startled that this is new information to you.

Many people adopt the (when flopping a monster) BetFlopCheckTurnBetRiver philosophy. I know Andy Fox has said he does this when flopping quads. I know tons o' people who do it live and online, I do it, etc. When you consider all the possibilities, I think you'll see that this is how you maximize profit. Forcing drawing dead opponents out on the turn doesn't help the bottom line. See, people don't like calling the turn drawing dead.

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I'm sure you posted this hand to show us how brilliant you are, so why don't you post the results, because your arguements don't seem logical to me.

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Wow, get indignant.

As I've said in this thread, I often post hands like this to find the error in my thinking. So far, except for the one person who said "I think UTG bluffs more than 10% of the time on the river", nobody has really pointed out errors in my thinking (and as I told him, we agree to disagree). I recently posted a hand where I jammed w/ KK on a raggedy board against 3 opponents, then checked when a Jack hit the river, thinking it was likely an opponent had JJ. As it turns out, they had TT and QQ. When somebody presented the math to show me the error in my ways, I quickly admitted as so.

Similarly, there's a good chance I misplayed this. There's a good chance I layed down the winner in a 13BB pot. That would be horrible. But if it's the right thing to do, it would be acceptable.

I'm waiting for somebody to provide a compelling argument that either:

a.) UTG bluffs more than 10% of the time, or
b.) HJ and Button don't have an Ace (and even then it's sketchy, because that only allows that UTG has an ace, and that may mean two pair, so just because the late players don't have an ace doesn't mean I should always call).

If (a) or (b) doesn't get shown, I played it right (regardless of results).

Josh