Re: Quick thoughts, more later
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The button certainly has an ace to overcall the hijack, but the hijack could have less than a pair of aces, given that the turn was checked around.
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Just in regards to what hijack could have....
There has to be a huge parlay for hijack to not have an ace here which means UTG doesn't have an ace:
1. No way he has JJ/QQ/KK - I have never seen one player at 30/60 play the hand this way.
2. a ten - without out another pair - like J10 - so you have to hope he called 2 cold on the flop with a J high pair draw with preflop 3 bettor yet to act
3. a nine - like J9 same comment in addition to the fact he didn't bet the turn once everyone else showed weakness
4. 77/88 you have to hope he thought UTG had a missed flushed draw and that nobody else would call.
Out of all of these I think a hand with a nine in it is the most likely candidate for hijack to have that doesn't contain an ace but still probably less than 2% of the time.
So in other words I thought it was a really bad fold at first but hand analysis shows it's a least a close call (in my opinion). But I still call in case UTG is an idiot and because I don't do this detailed of an analysis at the table.
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