Re: Matt Matros article in Cardplayer about coinflips
Yep, i've officially changed sides...
I'm definitely folding here, and i like it.
In an incredibly slow structure, in a tournament FILLED with idiots. Theres no way that this +800 chip (8% of our stack) move is worth the ginormous variance. And, i don't think it's +EV. My value doesn't quite double (as Mason's big ole post has been suggesting), i'd guess i'm worth between 60-80% more. So i'd need a 60%+ chance (in one shot) to double up for me to feel right doing it.
And the stats Matt quoted at the end, about how he countned that he double dup in 55% of his tournaments or somethign... that was online tournaments right? with fast structures/low chips? In a tournament like this it's gotta be more likely to double up. Maybe i'm just an arrogant prick though.
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