Re: Quick thoughts, more later
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If it were me (and I play only SLIGHTLY less than 38% of my hands), I'd check the turn not to checkraise (although I would if the opportunity presented itself) but to allow all the drawing dead AK, AQ, AJ, etc catch up.
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OK, but they already called 2 cold on the flop, now they are reluctant to call 1 big bet on the turn?
Doesn't utg want to bet the turn if they are drawing dead because they will likely call a bet on turn while they are "drawing" but be reluctant to call a bet with bare Ace on the river. You need the parlay of them to be drawing dead and to make there hand on the river for it to be break even with betting the turn don't you?
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Well, it's not an exact science. But people 'take one off' on the flop with naked overcards A WHOLE LOT MORE than they do on the turn. If UTG bets the turn and a drawingdead opponent mucks, it's horrible. If he gives a free card, there's no guarantee that they call the river, but there's AT LEAST A CHANCE for post-turn profit to be made.
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Yep, if he'll bluff the river over 10% of the time into a field of four. I don't think he will.
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He doesn't have to be bluffing, he just has to have a worse hand than you. There's no way utg can have Ahxh?
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I think way less than 1% of the time, unless his "x" is the non-heart card on the flop. And even that is almost impossible. This is simply because there are only 4 aces in the deck. I've got one (100% certain), the board has one (100% certain), the button has one (over 99.9% certain) and the highjack has one (over 95% certain). I think that '95' for the highjack is also about 99.
So, if he doesn't have at least an ace, and has a hand worse than me, I call that bluffing. Perhaps he dillusionally betting K9 on the river, not thinking its a bluff. But I put that in the "less than 10% chance that he bluffs the river" category (even if he doesn't call it a bluff).
Josh
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