[JasonP530]

I like your basis for the flop lead sometimes, but I don't think you have the river right. I think it is much more likely that someone is betting/calling without an ace than UTG raised a set/A9/A6 on the flop and then didn't bet the turn when a blank came. He can reasonably expect a higher pocket pair to 3 bet him from the CO and button, so it probably isn't out there. His check is very bad if he has a set(since they have already cold called 2 on the flop). So bad, that I would reward him by paying him on the river.