[Soh]

"OP's estimation of about 4 outs against this range of hands is reasonable..."

Not so fast.

If he has AA or KK, you're virtually drawn dead. Half the time that he has QQ or JJ, you have to hit your 3 outs. Since the ohter half the time, you're (virtually) drawn dead, this is like 1.5 out. Also, don't forget that you could get raised behind.

Soh