View Single Post
  #4  
Old 11-11-2005, 01:05 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Call-Range Modeling

1) I agree that VPIPs do not converge to their true value after 10-20 hands. But we can't increase the sample because blinds/stacks/etc will have changed too much if we go back any further.

2) I track the VPIP with PT. Hopefully I have no prior data on them that "blurrs" the stat for the current tourney. Maybe there is a setting I don't know about, but this is really annoying. When I have prior level 4-6 history on a player I can't tell what their VPIP is for the current tourney... For this reason, I'm working on a little history parser to tell me in reall time what their VPIP is for current toruney. Which does lead into 3...

3) I realize VPIP is not best measure. It has to be qualified as to were they pushing into stacks they had covered or not, or even better were they calling pushes from stacks they could cover or were dominated by. With soem parsing scripts I could make a tool that tallies those situations.

Given possible history parsing work from #3 I hope to develop a model where I can plug in things like: %push into smaller stack, %push into larger stacks, %call smaller stack, and %call bigger stack. All of these over the last 20 or so hands (blind levels again...). I really would like to have a robust way of putting villains on their call reanges. Of course when they are calling, we have added benefit of seeing what they called with, so we know that call range is AT LEAST X%. Maybe someone could make good argument that statiscally we now know their call range is at least X% + some percentage. (ie... what are chances we saw their absolute worst possible calling hand in range?)

So...
Thanks for the feedback.
Reply With Quote