Quick thoughts, more later
The flop bet, as I said, is hugely debatable, maybe. I'm not sure that I can provide an adequate argument FOR the bet. I'll talk about it later tonight, maybe.
The river fold is easier to explain. I tried putting my opponents on hands. And, well, I ran out of aces in the deck. If I just had to overcall, I could do it, but by having to over-overcall, well, that meant that UTG couldn't have an ace. It's pretty clear that HJ and Button both have big aces, and there's probably about 25% chance I'm chopping at best with button.
But the problem is UTG...what does he have? Unless he is stone cone bluffing into a field of four when the worst possible card for him comes on the river (which I think he does way less than 1 outta 20 times, probably more like 1 outta 50 times), I'm hosed.
It's funny that everybody so far as criticized the river fold, but nobody has put anybody on a hand yet.
I probably need to have the best hand here at least 10% of the time to justify a call (because I'll be chopping a decent chunk of the time). And even if I was ahead this time, I don't think I'm ahead 10% of the time.
I tried putting them on hands, and I ran out of aces.
Josh
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