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Old 11-11-2005, 11:13 AM
jcm4ccc jcm4ccc is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 116
Default Re: please help me settle an argument about 20 table SNG\'s

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the more players in em the more my edge is imho.

[/ QUOTE ] These kind of arguments make no sense to me (another type of argument was that you would have a higher EV with a 25 table rather than a 20 table SnG).

Let's say you are at the 90th percentile of all tournament players. In a 20 table SnG (180 players), there would typically be 18 players who are better than you. In a 25 table SnG (225 players), there would typically be 22 - 23 players better than you. In a 2000 player tournament, there would typically be 200 players better than you.

A smaller tournament reduces playing time and variance, IMO, and that is all.

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On that same note though, if you are in the 90th percentile, in a 180, there are 160 players worse than you. In a 225 there are 201 players worse than you. And in a 2000, there are 1799 players worse than you. Let's say that you make it into the 10%, and so does 25% of the players that are better than you (just to name a figure, no way to calculate which players will be there, but there won't be 100% of the players better than you being there), you have a good edge in all of them. So when you get in the money in the 180, when there are 18 left, there will only be about 4 players better than you. In the 250, when you get to the 27, there will be about 6 players better than you. And in the 2000, when you get to 180, there will be about 50 better than you. I'd like my chances there, seeing how it would be unlikely for more than 2-3 being at my table in any of those scenarios, and even if there were some, there would still be plenty of worse players to keep building stacks off of. Also would mean the better of a chance I'd have to get to the real pay spots, since I'd have more players to exploit thru their weaknesses.

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So let's assume that everybody finishes according to their ability (which we know never happens, but has to be our best guess as to what will happen).

With a $20+$2 buy-in and using the payout structure of Pokerstars:
In the 180 player tournament, you will finish in 5th place: profit $212
In the 250 player tournament, you will finish in 7th place: profit $153
In the 2000 player tournament, you will finish in 51st place: profit $78
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