[llabb]

Do you need more reasons than NY just being flat out awful? One of the few remaining winless teams. In their last game, they finally play a good half against Portland - another crappy team - then get killed by 22 in the 2nd half, to get blown out again. They already lost to GS at home, and probably should get beaten by more when on the road. LB is a good coach, but he's screwing around so much with the rotations that players are all confused, losing confidence, and openly criticizing him. Meanwhile, GS is a solid team with Baron running things, and are 21-12 since he's arrived.

I'm no guru, and NY could very well cover in the game, since +7.5's a lot, but I'm not going to try to catch a falling knife and predict exactly when NY's going to turn things around. Tried that already against Portland, a much worse team than GS, and with NY at home. I'll probably wait until NY obviously turns the corner, or go against them until then. I would take GS at -4 or -5, but will probably stay away at the current line. Also, it's moved to -8 on some sites.

Your system seems to rely heavily on getting lots of points, so if this game fits with your system, GL, it has a chance. But the line seems pretty fair to me, and is a risky play.