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Old 11-10-2005, 09:24 PM
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Default Re: Anyone have Exact Chip Counts of the Raymer vs. Kanter hand?

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He should fold the turn because it's a dangerous board and he has one pair. Why even push the turn? He knows he's going to get called since Kanter raised 600k. Yes, Kanter had two hearts, but that's results oriented thinking.

At teh same time, I think Kanter made a bad play by not pushing the turn. If he is going to raise, just push.

If Raymer is pot commited, ok. If he's not, I'd get out. Most times he's beat on the turn against a strong raise.

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It sounds like you only play online, which is basically the weakness in Kantor's game. You mention that 1 pair is usually beat by a turn raise, which is true. But, you don't seem to be willing to give me credit for making a good read of a relatively transparent opponent. If we were playing online, I would give Aaron's play a lot more credit. But, since we were playing live, he should have been thinking about me, and what cards I was holding, and how I would play them, rather than just looking at the cards on the table and in his hand. Or, instead of just thinking I might have AK, he should have been looking at me and trying to figure out how likely a hand AK was for me at that time. And I don't mind, I'm glad I was able to get millions of dollars in the pot as a 9:2 favorite; I'm only disappointed that I lost.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

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Greg,
I disagree. I think you played this wrong. You opened yourself up to getting drawn out. That's the cardinal sin of big pocket pairs? First, you made a low standard raise for this table, and get called. You then make a half pot bet that simply looks like a continuation bet. Then another heart and pair comes on the board. At this point, you have to move in, or check/fold. Instead, you make another half-pot bet. You're really just keeping the guy alive. Keeping him in the pot. Letting him draw.

You made the correct read, but from Kanter's point of view it just looks like you're not confident in your hand. I realize that this is the whole point, but why even try this at this point in the tourney? You only have one pair, and you're giving the guy the entire board to beat you. Why not shut him down, and take the 750k/1 mill pot? You had a good stack, and there was no need to play large pots. Kanter played this hand terribly, but it was FAR too late in the tourney to mess around. You didn't deserve to go out like that.

- Joe

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I disagree. The way to win tournaments is to win big showdowns and GR got AK to put all his money in on a huge draw. GR's chip stack at the time was big but he still needed to accumulate a lot more chips. If he had won that pot he would have been able to push the table like he did last year when people did not want to play many hands so they could move up the money list and he may have been at the final table with a much larger stack than anyone else. Notice how even the final table stack is spread this year?
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