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Old 11-10-2005, 07:28 PM
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Default Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?

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you guys r a bunch of gamblers...seriously I'd go maybe 3 hands, 4 max if I felt really lucky. I don't think I've ever won with Aces more than 3 times in a row... Don't you know how often Aces get cracked? You really think there gonna win 8 times in a row...lol

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Off the top of my head, you're going to win more than 10% of the time...so you win the $125K 1 time and lose $500 9 times. EV= +$120,500 for taking it to the end...if you only did it 4 times you would win about a third of the time and so your you would win $8,000 one time and lose $500 twice....EV= +$7,000

Are you going to pass up $113,500 just like that?

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This is where reality hits the theorists here. It's only a one time offer and once you lose a hand it's over so all your EV+- in the world isn't going to help with an answer. Since AA is probably going to get cracked at least one time in 8 hands played the farther you go the more likely you will lose the entire stack you just won. On the last hand you'd be risking $62,000 (with a guarantee of keeping the other $2000). Is there anyone here who would seriously risk $62,000 on one hand? I wouldn't. I'd take the $63,500 profit, thank Daniel profusely and offer to buy him dinner. :-)
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