Re: Hou @ Indy
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down to +1600 uh oh
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lol yeah the difference between +1700 and 1600 is about the same as the discrepancy between +115 and +116.5....0.33%
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i dont know much about moneylines, but are guys losing value by betting the ML as opposed the spread?
heres my thought. a bettor isnt going to lay that much juice with the colts (a novice, and def not a sharp) so i think the moneyline may be deflated for those who love to chase the big payday.
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When the game's good, there is value to both if the threshold between win probability and price is sufficiently high. To break even on +1600, Houston needs to win 5.88% of the time. If you've calculated the probability as higher or much higher than this, the value is there.
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yes, but like poker its not always about making moves (picks) that are +EV. for example, overlimping on the button with AA is +EV. however not raising is awful, as it is more +EV.
lets say the texans spread (17.5) offers $1.35 in value for every $50 wagered and the ML offers $.99 in value for every $50 wagered (this numbers are made up of course). Why would you take money you could be putting on the bet with more +EV and put it on with less, when the results of the bet are intertwined with each other?
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