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Old 11-10-2005, 04:12 PM
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Default Re: Anyone have Exact Chip Counts of the Raymer vs. Kanter hand?

[quote
You need to read the Theory Of Poker. Greg was able to induce Kantor to make many mistakes in this hand, which is how you win. Don't be results oriented, in poker you can never stop people from drawing out on you, you can only make sure they pay too much for the option.

Greg's problem is that in order to win any tournament, it's not as simple as getting your money in as a 82% favorite. You also must be lucky. Get all your chips in at 82% five times and you are usually watching the final table from the rail. The short run, i.e. tournaments, are never all skill.

Ask Greg if he could rewind the clock so he could go back and replay the hand. Tell him if he makes a huge all-in overbet into the pot on the flop that Kantor would fold. Or he can replay the hand from the turn with the same betting, and be dealt random river card. Which option do you think Greg will choose?

I'm pretty sure he'll want to re-run the river. If the river doesn't complete Kantor's flush, Greg's going to double up and be in great shape for the final table. If Kantor folds the flop, Greg only increases his stack about 13%.

The EV of the flop allin is +260k chips. My estimate (based on guestimated stack sizes) of playing out the hand is +1358k chips. It's not a close decision. So do you want a 100% guarantee of increasing your stack 13%, or an 82% chance of increasing it 100%? I'll take the latter.

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Everyone here needs to stop thinking that this is some type of cash game, and regular poker strategy applies. Why do you think Greg was sweating Tiffany's call with AJ so much? Did he not think Kanter had at least that type of a hand. He was trying to push her off the hand because he didn't want a call. He should've done the same ON THE TURN here. Your math is all wrong. You say he would've only picked up 260k? At the turn, I believe he's getting 700k. He's looking at a little over double that playing the way he did. That puts him at 3mill instead of 4mill. Please.

Would you take a fairly certain 3 mill stack, or 20% chance of being busted on the river? You don't need to put yourself in that position. Did anyone notice Hachem push all-in with trip Jacks when Ivey was making a play? I guess this was a bad play, and he should've kept Ivey on the string to increase his stack. Then he might have had a better chance to win.

Oh wait.........
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