Re: Passive line against LAG.
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There's not enough information here to talk about postflop. 44/18/5 is nowhere near good enough a read to take a calldown strategy on a board like this with TPTK. If you knew he would fire on all streets as a bluff (or semibluff with a QT/KT/TT type hand or spades), this might be a viable strategy. If you don't know, you need to show some aggression and figure out where you are.
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Show aggression? We can't even assume hes looser and more aggressive than most? How many hands before we can?
Anyhow I hate raising the flop because he will call with a ton of hands, some of which are drawing very live, some of which have me dominated, I think building the pot OOP here is just plain bad.
He'll call 9 times out of 10 on the flop and bet the turn when we check which leaves us folding most turns.
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So check/call flop and lead turn. IMO, reads based on PT numbers are almost completely useless past the flop.
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I like this line followed by a fold to raise and checkfold that river. I think PT numbers are very valuable if you use PA HUD. Seeing that a villain raised 25/40 flops that he's seen for instance is enough for me to assume he bets when checked to. Also, seeing a much lower turn number 8/30 tells me he slows down when his flop bets are called w/o a hand.
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