[gharp]

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One, I think that with an 80% VPIP, J3 and J4 are in his range as well, mitigating the -EV of the turn bet. I'm even tempted to include a discounted T3 and T4 against this guy. 54 should probably be in there, too. 64, 63, and 53 are probably a hair loose, though.

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I agree with you that all those hands should be in Mr. 80 VP$IP's range. And if you're going to include weighted down overcards with [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s (which DMBFan didn't), I think you could also include gutshots. These would tip us a bit more to +EV too.


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Two, you say you lose 1 BB when he c/r's you with a flush. Are you saying you'll fold your OESD and crappy flush draw to any turn c/r? I don't see it. With the chance he's c/r'ing me w/ two pair or a set, I think I'd end up losing 2.X BB, where X is the probability I hit something I want to call a river bet with.


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I think if you can't fold to a raise here then you shouldn't bet. I went back and forth on this as I was thinking about it so I'm willing to admit I'm wrong, but I just feel like it's more likely he's springing to life here with a flush than 2 pr or a set.

I dunno -- the more I look at it I think I'm assuming he's passive because he's loose, which is definitely not the right thing to do...