[MrWookie47]

First off, excellent analysis. Truly first class. I have a few nits to pick, however.

One, I think that with an 80% VPIP, J3 and J4 are in his range as well, mitigating the -EV of the turn bet. I'm even tempted to include a discounted T3 and T4 against this guy. 54 should probably be in there, too. 64, 63, and 53 are probably a hair loose, though.

Two, you say you lose 1 BB when he c/r's you with a flush. Are you saying you'll fold your OESD and crappy flush draw to any turn c/r? I don't see it. With the chance he's c/r'ing me w/ two pair or a set, I think I'd end up losing 2.X BB, where X is the probability I hit something I want to call a river bet with.

Last is the question of if we can throw out any hands because he didn't 3bet the flop. I think that hurts the case for A8, as well as the case for a set. Seeing a b/c, c/r line with a set from a donk is quite unusual. You tend to see c/c, c/r or b/3b, b with those sorts of hands.

While I haven't worked it out, I don't think that the combined total of these things will combine enough to make a turn bet +EV except in the extreme cases you describe, but they're still worth considering.