Re: Turn betting
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Hmm. Well, in your perfect scenario, if you check, you may do better on the river on a king or a ten (5 cards), but you'll probably hurt your action on a heart (9 cards). So that seems to argue for betting. Like bigalt points out, though, there is some risk of losing JJ or even getting checkraised and paying 2 BBs to go to the river, heads-up. So I'm not sure what's best.
In a non-perfect scenario where we don't know you have 1/3 equity, I like a check.
Capping the flop seems good to me, perfect scenario or not, but I do see that making that cap could hurt your turn action if you improve. SB may fear a heart or another ten no matter what you do, but once you've capped the flop, you have given him an excuse to check the turn.
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Hey Nick I'm really interested in how you think the action is going to go on a river [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or a river 10, depending on whether we bet or check the turn (assuming we are facing AA and QQ).
At first glance I was kind of thinking that on the turn we are either getting c/r or these guys are in call down mode, so that betting the turn really only has a downside without really changing the river action.
I really don't think about these type of things well though so just wanted you to elaborate. Thanks.
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Actually, I'm thinking maybe I overestimated how much the turn decision affects the river action.
My idea was that if Hero checks the turn, he pretty much gives away that he has a flush draw. So he won't get bet into on the river on a heart. But when the turn goes bet, call, call, which is what we're hoping for, Hero won't get bet into on the river very often anyway. I guess one question is whether, after a turn check behind, someone (with, say, JJ) who would have called the river will now check-fold on a heart instead. I don't know the answer to that.
Someone pointed out that Hero will get more action on a heart that gives someone else a set if Hero doesn't check the turn, and I agree with that.
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