Re: NL200 Monster draw on the flop, worth the chase?
At best, you are a 4-5 dog (assuming you are up against something like KT); more likely you are a 2-3 dog against a set of deuces of tens.
With 185 in the pot, you are being laid 3.4ish to 1 on the call. Taking a card off by calling the 55 would increase the pot 335 on a call of the rest of your 95 to lay you as a 2-7 dog once. At this point, by calling on the flop, a jam would be almost 0 EV.
Jamming may sound like the fishy play here, but if you are indeed up against a set, you are being priced here. The tight player will most likely not lay down his hand here; you'll get your money if you're playing mathematically correct most of the time anyway--why not be aggressive and do it now?
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