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I think you're way overvaluing the BDFD and underestimating the times you're dominated by Ax.

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That's about the right value for the BDFD (which is normally a 1.5, so 2.0 with a nut is usually about right with implied). 33% of the time for dirty overs or redraws also seems about right. There's also a small (and it's pretty small, since he'll probably have a 15 outer) portion of the time where the river will check through and you'll feel clever when he mucks a 6 or two hearts.

Another thing to consider is that a 3rd heart on the turn may convince him that he has to donk out, even if he wasn't intending to. This is actually a really interesting, borderline spot. I've never put much thought into these before.