My thoughts.
The consensus seems to be that ATs is a marginal but +EV raise in this situation. There were one or two folders, probably a bit more "Duh I raise with even less" folks, but for the most part this was right on the line for most.
I ran some Pokerstoves, and against a typical TAG preflop range for the HJ in a 5-handed game I'm running almost exactly 50-50. Against a good player, I'm not sure that's enough; yes, I have position, but there are three people behind me that are perfectly able to pick up a real hand.
I think that this player's PFR stat has thrown some people off -- yes, he's a 35/30 player, but the difference between a 35/30 player and a 30/20 player isn't so much the play in the HJ but more likely blind play (a lot more defense and 3-betting from the SB and BB.)
Long story short, I 3-bet, the BB called, he called, and we went to a flop of AT5r. The rest of the hand played itself . . . that is, I ended up capping the turn when a blank fell and lost to his pocket aces (tricky on his part. I don't *think* he capped preflop.)
Still not convinced this was a good raise in this situation, but it looks like it was so close that I really shouldn't beat myself up here.
|