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Old 11-08-2005, 04:51 PM
Spekkio Spekkio is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 30
Default Re: NL50 Too eager with AA?

You are either way ahead or way behind here. If you push now, you win the minimum possible and lose the maximum possible. Let's say, for example, Villain has AKo. Although it would be hard to put you on AA, the board is dry and he may actually get away from his pair of kings. Yet there are only two cards in the deck that can give him the winning hand: one of the remaining two kings.

Let's look at it another way: Villain has 99. He raises you because he thinks you hit the flop with AK or KQ, or ppAA. You push back right into him, he calls, and you are drawing to two outs. Not good.

The line you SHOULD take in this situation, considering the nature of the board, is to call him down and attempt to get as cheap a showdown as possible. In this way, you can also get AK or KQ to bet into you again. If he has a set, he's likely to check the turn to let you bet into him, but you're not going to fall for that. Of course, the big asterisk here is you can't be married to your ppA. If he starts going buck-wild on you when he's normally a passive player, for example, he probably has you beat.

To emphasize, on this dry board I put villain on KQ, AK, 99, or 33. You have to use a read to find out how he plays TPTK vs. a set (the raise to me says TPTK though). If you aren't sure, you should call him down in an effort to get a cheap showdown. If you are sure, call against AK and fold against the sets. There is a small chance he has QQ or JJ, but would he limp with those hands, and then raise the PFR'er on the flop? Only if he's smart enough to know you'll lay down AK to heat, and most $50NL players won't. So I doubt that he has QQ-TT.

You can't play so afraid of the turn/river that you just push it all-in to prevent someone from "drawing" to a two-outer.
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