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t doesn't look like there's any danger of giving a free card

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I disagree with this - I think a likely holding for UTG is a high pocket pair, and you won't ever see it coming if the turn gives him a set. You're putting your money in either way, so put it in now while you have the FE. As DS says in SSHE, there's half of a buyin in that pot, get it right now if you can.