[nightlyraver]

First I want to reply to some of the feedback so far:

I didn't say that I was sure I would tripple up, that was just hindsight. In the actual hand, the BB and the SB put in all their chips. When I was considering the call I assumed everyone else would fold.

I don't think counting the A as 3 additional outs is far from correct. Assuming that the bettor has a K, he would have to have exactly AK for my A to be no good. I think that after a LMP opens and 2 calls, many times, but not always, a BB w/ AK will RR to limit the field.

Assuming the FE equation is correct and the bettor must fold 25% of the time, I don't think he is calling all that often to make this play incorrect. After all, he called preflop getting better than 4:1 on his money. He could have any 2! If he has a K w/o a good kicker, he will have to give me credit for a better hand. For example, he may have called w/ KTs and bets the pot. Most would fold to the raise in this spot.

I don't think that my original read will be off the vast majority of the time. I guess he could have had a set of 7's or two pair, but that's a real long shot. I'm not sure it would be incorrect to simply assume the bettor has a K with either a decent kicker or a bad kicker. It was said that semi-bluffing all my chips early on is a bad idea, especially if I'm better than average. This goes back to pushing small edges early in a tourney I suppose. However, I feel that I made a mistake mathematically. If I could see his cards and ran the numbers, I SHOULD have called, making this a big mistake as far as the Fundamental Theory of Poker is concerned.