Re: Freshly Played Hand
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It just seems to me that no one has even considered that i could be right, and yes i have posted this hand on another forum and a very high calibre player agrees,
And giving the villan exactly the AK, AQ of diamonds is completely unrealistic, youve aleady started he would raise overs here so you cant rule out black AKo. I have posted the proper hand ranges earlier in this thread.
Please tell explain to me why 3 betting this flop is bad.
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Much better tone, thanks.
Zak has said his range is the following (which I wasn't sure about at the time of the hand). TT+, AQs+, AKo
As for the other player, only God knows what his range is, and it probably doesn't "make sense" to any of us.
I think it may be able to be represented this way:
Board: 9h 8d 6d
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1:36.5147 % 35.00% 01.51% { TcTd }
Hand 2:37.1233 % 36.05% 01.07% { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3:26.3620 % 25.41% 00.95% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s }
So, we MAY be pushing a 3% edge. As you said, there are times to push that and times to not push it. Just because you have an edge at a moment in a hand, DOES NOT always mean that you should be throwing chips in, and the next card can drastically impact your holding, and you can then get away from the hand more easily, or push a much better edge. Now, whether this hand falls into one of those categories or not is the question.
We obviously don't KNOW in the hand whether Zak has us beat or just has overs. So, we can discuss now what is correct play given the FTOP, but we really need to be discussing what is the correct play during the hand.
I'll admit, at the time, I really felt that my equity would increase with a safe turn card. But that doesn't appear to be the case.
Board: 9h 8d 6d 2c
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1:33.5809 % 32.39% 01.19% { TcTd }
Hand 2:40.4176 % 39.46% 00.96% { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3:26.0015 % 25.43% 00.57% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s }
However, I did know I would be in much better shape if I didn't see an A or K on the turn:
Board: 9h 8d 6d Kh
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1:15.3073 % 14.27% 01.04% { TcTd }
Hand 2:54.3410 % 53.33% 01.01% { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3:30.3517 % 29.80% 00.55% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s }
Board: 9h 8d 6d Ah
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1:11.8524 % 10.82% 01.03% { TcTd }
Hand 2:58.0604 % 57.00% 01.06% { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3:30.0873 % 29.52% 00.56% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s }
So....
I do find this to be rather interesting. The only cards that increase my equity from the flop to the turn are a T or a 7 (a J also slighly increase the equity as well). All other cards decrease my equity, and some in a drastic manner.
So, perhaps this is a different scenario altogether. I'm not looking for reasons to not 3 bet the flop. I'm looking for what seems to be the best play, and that answer is not always black and white, and can go different directions depending on a person's style and other factors.
However, I will say this. Given the fact that the small equity edge you have on the flop WILL BE lost on the turn without the falling of 10 cards, I don't like 3 betting the flop. This is different than I originally thought as my reason for not 3 betting the flop previously was because I thought my equity would increase on the turn due to a "safe" card and I could push a larger edge; however, as we've seen, that's not true. So, I still like my play, but for a different reason.
Zak will most likely not fold his overs to my turn bet, but I like to continue to apply preasure on the turn in case that's what he's holding. Of course, I cannot fold to a raise (if he does so) because of my gutshot. Some may think that simply check/calling the turn if I was 100% positive Zak would not fold overcards; however, I like making him pay to catch anyway. Also, there is perhaps another benefit to betting the turn. If a blank hits the turn, and I bet and Zak doesn't raise, I can put him on overcards. This makes a river value bet a very easy decision. This is not to say that if he does raise the turn, I can put him on an overpair, since he could do so with something like AKs with a 4 flush as well.
Those are my thoughts. I'm happy to hear your response.
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