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Old 11-08-2005, 03:02 AM
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Default Re: Another book question

Your claims are bold, your thoughts are interesting. If you care to share your background, I'd appreciate it. You seem well-read in finance and investing.

You accept the reality that one can, with skill, daytrade(well, intraday or short term I assume) profitably. But you go on to state that long term investing for the individual is a sham and cite an inability to overcome EMH.

This is confusing because you state that Goldman's black boxes, hedge funds, insider info, etc. can overcome the EMH - it appears that you made this argument to support the idea that while powerhouses can profit in the long run, individuals who don't have the info, can't. But these activities you mention are short term in nature. Stevie Cohen is making quick short term moves once he gets word from his friendly insiders what's up. Black boxes can do a variety of things, but the most powerful and active are short term - you know, those spoofs on the ECNs that headfake you, or the market making algorithms, and all the crap going on with boxes in the ES(S&P futures). Look to Jim Simmons and RenTech, I know they love automated short term strategies on futures markets.

I must ask though, what exactly is the time frame you are referring to for an individual that is actively buying and selling stocks in an investment portfolio? The SEC states that pattern daytrading is 4 or more roundtrips in one consecutive 5 day period, or something like that. I don't daytrade stocks, but I believe it's close to that. Are you saying that an individual who has a multi-week or multi-month strategy is just fooling himself?

Once you explain this, I will be able to better understand where you are coming from and give a more thorough response.
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