View Single Post
  #6  
Old 11-08-2005, 12:26 AM
Nick C Nick C is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 1,582
Default Re: QQ on the button and everyone goes crazy

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm wondering if you should have folded when it came back two more to you on the turn. Also, I think I would have capped preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Absolutely QQ should fold instead of cold calling the SB's turn check raise. I also agree QQ caps PF. The other person to reply agreed with both of these plays as well.

I was really interested to see if anyone thinks that QQ should fold on the flop, or to the CO's turn bet.

I realize that even if the button is behind on the flop, the pot is huge and he can peel the turn hoping to spike a Q. It's not 100% clear to me how the chances of being up against TT and drawing almost dead figure into this.

Let me be more clear - QQ has two opportunities to fold after the flop (but before the turn). I think we all agree that the flop raise of the CO's bet is correct. When UTG 3 bets, the pot is so large that QQ should peel but know that QQ is behind.

Thus it makes some sense that when the CO leads again, QQ should fold. I don't think the odds to spike are there anymore.

QQ clearly should fold to the turn SB check raise and resultant CO 3 bet (a cold call here does not even close the action!), but again, should QQ consider folding to CO's turn lead (again, not closing the action).

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop, I think Button needs to peel. I'm not even positive he's losing, even after UTG checkraises. Also, while TT is possible, it's really just not very likely, mathematically, so I don't think we should be worrying about it too much, yet. Even if we're certain UTG flopped a monster, JJ is 3 times as likely (in terms of combos) as TT, and AT (12 combos) is also quite possible.

On the turn, I don't think CO's bet necessarily means CO has Button beat. CO did slow down after the flop check/3-bet, and he could be betting AJ again, because he was checked to again. Meanwhile, SB could easily be chasing overs + gutshot, or he could have a top-pair hand that he knows probably isn't good. And UTG could have (somewhat foolishly, in my opinion) check/3-bet a draw on the flop.

All of this is a lot to ask for, and the bet does in fact come from an awkward spot. Maybe a fold is best, but I probably would have called. If we'll occasionally have the best hand, and we can frequently get to the river for just this one bet, then those rare times we catch a queen (along with the pot size) may make up for the fact that we're probably not best here all that often.

Folding for two more seems like a good idea to me, though. SB's checkraise followed by CO's 3-bet is extremely scary. I think both of them have Button beat.
Reply With Quote