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Old 11-07-2005, 11:57 PM
Nick C Nick C is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 1,582
Default Re: QQ on the button and everyone goes crazy

This is just crazy. Maybe Shill will be able to figure out what everyone has, but I can't.

But, here goes:

On the flop, I think UTG has a boat, trips, a jack, an overpair (not so likely, since he didn't cap preflop), or KQ.

CO's could have AQ, AK, an overpair, or JJ. AJ/AT is also possible, as are underpairs (but the flop bet is optimistic, if that's what he's got).

On the turn, when UTG checks, I start thinking he either has decided to be tricky for the entire hand with his monster or he does in fact have KQ. Then again, maybe his flop check/3-bet didn't thin the field as much as he (over-optimistically) hoped it would, and he has a hand like KJ.

When SB checkraises, I'm thinking we just located a ten (or JJ).

When CO 3-bets, that's not a good sign. I guess maybe he slowed down after the flop raise and 3-bet for deception purposes but then found himself leading again when he got checked to again. His turn 3-bet is pretty scary. I'm thinking JJ, at this point. 77 is also possible, I guess, and even TT can't be ruled out. Also, maybe he thinks AA is still the nuts (but I doubt that's what's going on).

If UTG really had KQ, then at least he's smart enough to realize his straight is probably not going to be enough on the river. I don't like a flop check/3-bet with KQ, after that preflop action, on a paired board, despite the overcards + OESD (if that's what he had).

If SB had trips (that's my guess), I think he should have played more aggressively on the flop. I wouldn't slowplay in this spot.

If I were CO and flopped the nuts or 2nd nuts, I probably would have just capped the flop and played fast.

For your part, I'm wondering if you should have folded when it came back two more to you on the turn. Also, I think I would have capped preflop.
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