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Old 11-07-2005, 09:12 PM
W. Deranged W. Deranged is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 96
Default Re: Triple Draw Decision-- Wynn 10/20 Mixed

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The really interesting question is what do you do if the river is checked around to you (when you stay pat).

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Check behind.

I don't have a 55% edge on SB, and based on the way he's played the hand, the fact the game is four-handed and we've been playing fast and loose (and drunk in one case), I think there is basically no chance I'm getting a better hand to fold from the SB (he has acted obviously skeptical all night). Similarly I'm never folding a better hand from the other non-2+2er. (For perspective, he had regularly called down in the Omaha/8 game with 3rd and 4th nut-low draws/hands on the turn and river behind my promotion raise attempts, and was usually correct. He is not going to be pressured out here with a possible winning hand.)

I also don't think I'm getting many calls from inferior hands from either Death Donkey or the button. So I don't think the river qualifies as a betting situation where I might not win >50% but would win greater than 33% in a three-way pot or something like that. So I see no value in a bet either.

The tough question for me is what to do if I check, button bets, SB calls, Death Donkey folds, and it's to me. I think it's a pretty easy fold to a bet and an overcall, as I'm now parlaying and I think the button was not going to bet many weak hands there. It's obviously a very easy fold if any raising starts or in the very, very unlikely event button bets, SB calls, and the Death Donkey overcalls.
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