Re: TD: rough river betting
I think this is very read-dependent, personally. The reason is that I can see two different, and somewhat mutually contradictory reasons for betting here:
1. Because villain knows you draw one, and since you're at least reasonably likely to have paired, might call you down with basically any no-pair hand here hoping to snap off a bluff. If your image is loose and aggressive, this reason for betting becomes more prominent. I'd like to have seen my opponent show down some very weak no-pair hands though to want to bet this for value.
2. You're trying to fold a 9 or an 8. Again, I want a read on my opponent here.
Against an unknown, this sort of bet qualifies as the ever-confusing "value-bluff," the idea being that you have a reasonable chance of both folding a better hand and getting a call from a worse hand. I'd definitely, though, want to see that my opponent is capable of either pretty tight river folds or pretty loose river calls before I made this bet, though. Your hand does have a lot of showdown value in its own right.
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